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Louisville is very inexperienced this year and as long as UCI can avoid the fast break I think they will have a ton of issues scoring at the rim with a 7'2 player blocking it. Irvine has one of hte best 2-3 zone defenses and 2 point defenses and they are 98th in giving up the ball which means Louisville will have to push it on rebounds and I don't think it will be enough to cover this spread. I'm actually picking Irvine in one of my pools to pull the upset. They have 2 guys handling the ball that don't turn it over and could keep this game close. Louisville has only beaten 4 tournament teams and has gone 4-7 against them and they are 5-5 straight up vs. teams ranked in top 100 in 2 point defense so it's definitely something they've had issues with.
This is a dangerous team in the tournament and I just don't think Valpo stacks up here at all. Valpo did not have a good strength of schedule in conference or out of conference and the two teams they did play who are usually pretty decent (New Mexico, Missouri) were not in the top 200, but they still lost by double digits. Maryland has 9 wins against tournament teams including MIchigan State twice, Iowa State and Wisconsin for an impressive resume. They have a SR guard in Dez Wells who will take over a game and can score from all over including the FT line. They also have to other guys that will get to the FT line in Trimble and Layman and they have some big enough guys to contend with Valpo's trio. More athleticism and great guard play here will be the difference.
Oklahoma State is just 18-13 yet they are in the tournament as they had the 5th toughest schedule they really struggled down the stretch while Oregon got hot. The schedules just don't compare as Oklahoma State has faced the 2nd toughest opponent defensive schedule. Their offense will actually get a breather here against Oregon ranking 129th in adjusted defense. They have only played 5 teams all year with a defense not in the top 100 and most were in the top 50. They went 4-1 in those games with their only loss being by 1 point. LeBryan Nash should take this game over down the stretch as the SR will not have anyone who can really guard him and that will be the difference.
Where to find Freddy?